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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."